Analysis of Medical Staff Turnover Behavior Under Supply–Demand Relationship Based on Psychological Contract Governance: An Evolutionary Game Theory Approach

This study focuses on overcoming critical human resource challenges within the healthcare sector and exploring the formulation and implementation of measures to reduce the turnover rate of the medical staff. The concept of psychological contract governance posits that hospitals should prioritize fostering positive interpersonal relationships, providing robust social support, and cultivating a supportive work environment. This approach addresses the psychological and spiritual needs of the medical staff beyond mere material incentives, thereby ultimately enhancing workforce stability. Current research on psychological contract among the medical staff remains limited, predominantly focusing on identifying antecedents of turnover behavior and applying intervention strategies from a psychological contract standpoint. Grounding our analysis in the core dimensions of psychological contract, this study employs evolutionary game theory to model the strategic interactions between hospitals that implement psychological contract governance and the turnover decisions of the medical staff, under varying labor market supply and demand conditions. Our analysis elucidates the specific contexts and mechanisms by which psychological contract governance influences turnover decisions. Furthermore, we utilize system simulation to explore key parameters affecting the evolutionary outcomes for both parties involved and propose strategies to improve the retention of the medical staff. It is recommended that psychological contract governance strategies be tailored to current labor market conditions, with particular emphasis on the dynamics of supply and demand. Implementing a systematic incentive framework is advantageous, as it effectively addresses the multifaceted needs of the medical staff, encompassing both material and psychological motivators. In addition, strengthening negative organizational constraints, while maintaining a positive psychological contract governance framework, is essential for optimizing overall outcomes. This research aims to provide valuable insights for human resource management within medical institutions and to offer a theoretical foundation for talent management decisions made by hospital administrators and relevant healthcare regulatory bodies.