Determinants of the Global FDI-Embodied Carbon Transfer Network: A Temporal ERGM Approach

The study investigates the structural evolution and driving forces of the global foreign direct investment (FDI)–embodied carbon-transfer network from 2000 to 2019, utilizing a combination of social network analysis and econometric modeling. Leveraging the OECD Analytical Activities of Multinational Enterprises (AMNE) database and carbon-emission data, the research constructs a network of carbon flows embedded in FDI, identifying key transmission hubs and trends over 2 decades. The findings indicate that the network remained structured around a small number of major source economies, with the China aggregate surpassing the United States as the largest source of FDI-embodied carbon outflows by 2019. The study combines motif analysis with a temporal exponential random graph model (TERGM) to assess the determinants of network evolution. Compared with static ERGM or QAP regression, the TERGM evaluates the endogenous network structure, nodal attributes, dyadic covariates, and temporal change across a sequence of annual networks within a common framework. The results show that regional trade agreements are positively associated with tie formation across subperiods, while a formal interaction test indicates a stronger post-2009 association for international investment agreements. The normalized motif profiles also reveal the relative prominence of a recurring “carbon-transfer club†configuration, in which regional integration intensifies carbon-transfer ties among groups of economies. These findings extend aggregate and bilateral FDI-carbon accounting by identifying temporal and structural interdependence in global investment–related carbon transfers and underscore the need for policies that address the environmental implications of FDI while promoting sustainable economic integration.