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Path Simulation and Evolution Mechanism of Risk Contagion in Construction Project Portfolios

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  • Jielin Wei
  • Fengtao Liu

Abstract

The construction projects are characterized by long cycles, large investments, and complex risks, which are also influenced by resource allocation, and risks exhibit certain diffusion effects. This study focuses on the production characteristics of construction projects. The risk causation involved in the whole life cycle stage is analyzed, and a total of 16 quantitative risk indicators in four dimensions are sorted out. The risk transmission characteristics of construction projects are clarified through risk matrix calculations. Secondly, under the analysis framework of system dynamics, a risk transmission combination model for construction projects is constructed, and a simulation study on the formation and diffusion effects of the risk transmission network under different conditional factors is conducted. The simulation results showed that indicators such as “project interaction benefits,†“project manager risk appetite,†and “average network density†have a positive influence on risk contagion. Finally, corresponding management recommendations are proposed, providing research support for multiproject portfolio risk analysis in cross-resource environments.

Suggested Citation

  • Jielin Wei & Fengtao Liu, 2026. "Path Simulation and Evolution Mechanism of Risk Contagion in Construction Project Portfolios," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2026, pages 1-21, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:hin:complx:6286835
    DOI: 10.1155/cplx/6286835
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