Evolutionary Game of Multiple Subjects Collaborative Innovation Under Double Uncertainty

Multisubject technology collaborative innovation serves as an essential driving force to improve technology transfer efficiency as well as implement the innovation-driven strategy. Particularly, collaborative innovation in accordance with technological orientation and market demand enables the efficient resource allocation that stimulates innovation willingness and improves innovation performance. This study explores the strategies and conditions for multiagent collaborative innovation under technological and market uncertainties, employing a government–enterprise–university evolutionary game model. Numerical simulations demonstrate that both technology and market factors are critical drivers of collaborative innovation systems, with market influences outweighing technological ones. Notably, technological universality proves more impactful than novelty. When technology and market drivers are weak, government willingness becomes the decisive factor in shaping other participants’ strategic choices. Punitive measures have a stronger effect on system evolution than government incentives. The study’s key contribution lies in emphasizing technological sophistication, technological universality, market price, participant willingness, and policy impacts. The findings underscore the dynamic interplay of technology, market, and government in collaborative innovation, offering novel theoretical and practical insights into its driving mechanisms and implementation pathways.