IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

Long-Term Trends in the Mass Communication Industry


  • Anna Kachkaeva


  • Ilya Kiriya

    () (National Research University Higher School of Economics)


The paper is part of a large foresight study carried out by the authors at the HSE Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge for the Russian Ministry of Telecommunication and Mass Communications. It is important that mass communication, with its virtual product is related to two other sectors: telecommunications and information and communication technology. Technological transformations affect these three industries alike; the growth of bandwidth, convergence of terminals and growth of their computational performance are transforming products and markets in all three. Long-term trends in these markets have been well defined by a range of industrial experts. The conclusion of the paper provides recommendations for the revision of public policy. The authors note only a few new tendencies in services and products. However, wide diffusion of these trends due to cheap technologies will lead to radical changes in the sector. New markets will appear as a result of expansion and adjustment of industrial relations between agents, previously independent of each other. Key trends are the abandonment of linear-media in favor of "user-controlled" consumption, with a growing amount of content produced by the user, and the spread of social interactions. The trends are interrelated and determine the transformation of business models, the sources of income, and the value of goods produced by the media industry. The most negative trend according to experts is "deprofessionalization" of content, which poses a risk for institutionalized forms of media. With such turbulent changes regulation in mass communications will inevitably undergo transformation. Henceforth it will not be able to rely upon content filtering and setting quotas. Instead the regulation should be built upon enabling a diversity of information sources to create the news agenda at the request of the audience. Note: Downloadable document is in Russian.

Suggested Citation

  • Anna Kachkaeva & Ilya Kiriya, 2012. "Long-Term Trends in the Mass Communication Industry," Foresight and STI Governance (Foresight-Russia till No. 3/2015), National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 6(4), pages 6-18.
  • Handle: RePEc:hig:fsight:v:6:y:2012:i:4:p:6-18

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Kerstin Cuhls, 2003. "From forecasting to foresight processes-new participative foresight activities in Germany," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2-3), pages 93-111.
    2. Dirk Meissner & Mario Cervantes, 2010. "Successful Foresight Study: Implications for Design, Preparatory Activities and Tools to Uses," Foresight and STI Governance (Foresight-Russia till No. 3/2015), National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 4(1), pages 74-81.
    3. Remer, Donald S. & Nieto, Armando P., 1995. "A compendium and comparison of 25 project evaluation techniques. Part 2: Ratio, payback, and accounting methods," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 101-129, December.
    4. Attila Havas & Doris Schartinger & Matthias Weber, 2010. "The impact of foresight on innovation policy-making: recent experiences and future perspectives," Research Evaluation, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(2), pages 91-104, June.
    5. Ozcan Saritas & Erol Taymaz & Turgut Tumer, 2006. "Vision 2023: Turkey’s National Technology Foresight Program – a contextualist description and analysis," ERC Working Papers 0601, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Jan 2006.
    6. Remer, Donald S. & Nieto, Armando P., 1995. "A compendium and comparison of 25 project evaluation techniques. Part 1: Net present value and rate of return methods," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 79-96, November.
    7. Eilat, Harel & Golany, Boaz & Shtub, Avraham, 2008. "R&D project evaluation: An integrated DEA and balanced scorecard approach," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 895-912, October.
    8. Remer, Donald S. & Stokdyk, Scott B. & Van Driel, Mike, 1993. "Survey of project evaluation techniques currently used in industry," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 103-115, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item


    forecasting; scenarios; long-term trends; media market; mass communications; content; information technologies;

    JEL classification:

    • L82 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Entertainment; Media


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hig:fsight:v:6:y:2012:i:4:p:6-18. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Nataliya Gavrilicheva) or (Mikhail Salazkin). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.