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The Immersive Economy After the Metaverse: Forecast Failure, the Wearables Turn, and Investment Policy

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  • Olaniyi Evans

Abstract

Between 2020 and 2023, leading consultancies projected that the metaverse and immersive technologies would add between US$1.5 trillion and US$5 trillion to global output within a decade. This article audits those forecasts against realized outcomes through 2025 using firm disclosures and device-shipment data. The headline value did not appear in the form predicted: capital losses compounded, the headset-gated virtual world stalled, and growth migrated to artificial-intelligence-enabled smart glasses and to open three-dimensional platforms reached through existing devices. The note explains the diffusion economics behind the overshoot, distinguishes genuine failures from genuine successes, and sets out where capital and policy attention should concentrate.

Suggested Citation

  • Olaniyi Evans, 2026. "The Immersive Economy After the Metaverse: Forecast Failure, the Wearables Turn, and Investment Policy," Hequation Review, Hequation, vol. 3(2), pages 8-15.
    • Handle: RePEc:heq:heqrev:v3y2026i2a2
    DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.32588928
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    JEL classification:

    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • L63 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - Microelectronics; Computers; Communications Equipment
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • O38 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Government Policy
    • L86 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Information and Internet Services; Computer Software

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