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Relation Of Onion Production And Price Determination With Ardl Boundary Test And Almon Model: Cobweb Theorem

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  • Feride Gulsum Gumuşsoy

    (kutahya dumlupınar Universitesi)

Abstract

In this study, using annual data from 1980-2017 year for Turkey the appropriateness of cobweb theorem for dry onion were investigated. in accordance with this purpose, by applying ARDL boundary test approach between long term relationship onion production and price was determined. To estimate a real cointegration relationship, first of all, ADF, PP, KPSS unit root test, which do not take into account structural breaks, and Zivot and Andrews unit root test, Which takes structural break into account, were applied. According to the ARDL limit test results, current period price level does not have influence on production. However, previous two periods and the 2002 period when structural break occourred have a significant effect on production. According to the finding obtained from the Almon model, price level in past two period have a positive effect in descending proportion on production. Unlike studies in the literature, the effect of economic recession on agricultural production was tried to be determined with the ARDL model applied considering the period in which the structural break occurred.

Suggested Citation

  • Feride Gulsum Gumuşsoy, 2021. "Relation Of Onion Production And Price Determination With Ardl Boundary Test And Almon Model: Cobweb Theorem," Ekonomi Maliye Isletme Dergisi, Adil AKINCI, vol. 4(1), pages 37-55, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gnx:emid43:2021-4-1-794094
    DOI: 10.46737/emid.794094
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices

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