Climate and Energy Security Nexus in the Pacific: An Integrative Thematic Review

Despite accounting for less than 0.03% of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions, the Pacific Small Island Developing States (PSIDS) face existential threats to their environment, livelihoods, and regional stability due to their heavy dependence on imported fossil fuels and disproportionate climate vulnerability. To address this “Justice Paradox,” this study utilises a Nexus Mapping framework to qualitatively synthesise the non-linear causal pathways between climate stressors and energy system vulnerabilities. Through an integrative thematic synthesis of literature and regional policy documents, the research identifies systemic bottlenecks, including the “fiscal trap” of post-disaster reconstruction, the “demand-utility paradox” of rising temperatures, and the logistical premiums of archipelagic energy distribution. The analysis suggests that energy decarbonisation represents a strategic opportunity to strengthen climate security across four dimensions: human, national, international, and ecological. To facilitate a secure transition, the study proposes a comprehensive “policy mix” of regulatory standards (sticks), economic de-risking through mechanisms such as Sovereign Green Bonds (carrots), and the institutionalisation of local technical sovereignty (sermons). This research offers an interpretive analytical framework for Pacific policymakers, arguing that decentralised, modular renewables may serve as a strategic shield against climatic instability and support the preservation of regional statehood.