Relationship Between Disaster Declarations and Wheat Crops in the Yaqui Valley, Sonora, Mexico

Sonora state in Mexico, leads the nation in wheat production affected by various hydrometeorological phenomena, which can result in considerable economic losses. This research evaluates the potential relationship between emergency or disaster declarations associated with hydrometeorological events and wheat production from 2000 to 2024 in the Yaqui Valley aquifer in Sonora. This region alone contributed 51.6% of the total production value of Sonora in 2024. The results indicate that the issuance of declarations is consistent with losses and decreased wheat yields, resulting in a significant negative correlation (between r = 0.13 and r = 0.58) between the two variables. A total of 101 declarations were reported, with heavy rains being the primary cause at 44.6%. The municipality most affected was Guaymas, with 33 declarations from a total of 85. Additionally, 972 hectares were damaged in areas where declarations were issued, compared to 174 hectares damaged in areas where no declaration was made. These results provide a quantitative basis for the disaster risk diagnosis of wheat production in the Yaqui Valley, suggesting that the lack of records and timely information on hydrometeorological contingencies may result in a lack of awareness of the disruptive phenomenon, causing inconsistency between the failure to issue a disaster declaration and damaged areas, thereby increasing the vulnerability of the affected areas.