The Wicked Problem of Space Debris: From a Static Economic Lens to a System Dynamics View

The global space economy, valued at approximately USD 400–630 billion (depending on definitional scope), is projected to expand rapidly, crossing USD 1 trillion as early as 2032 and reaching up to about USD 1.8 trillion by 2035. This growth has been driven by a surge (a roughly twelvefold increase) in satellite launches over the past decade, transforming Earth’s orbits into an increasingly congested domain plagued by space debris. The proliferation of space junk poses an escalating threat to orbital sustainability, yet effective governance mechanisms remain limited. This paper examines why conventional solutions for managing common-pool resources (command-and-control regulation, Pigouvian taxes, private property rights, allocation of tradable permits, and horizontal governance regimes) are not fully effective or are difficult to implement in addressing the orbital debris problem. Using a system dynamics perspective, the study qualitatively maps hypothesized feedback mechanisms shaping orbital expansion and space debris accumulation. It suggests that, under the assumed causal structure, reinforcing growth loops associated with geopolitical rivalry and commercial cost reductions linked to the New Space paradigm currently dominate over delayed balancing effects arising from the finite nature of orbital space, whose regenerative capacity is progressively degraded. There exists a threshold of exploitation beyond which orbital space effectively behaves as a non-renewable resource. The analysis suggests that, without binding international coordination, meaningful intervention may require the occurrence of a catalyzing crisis—e.g., a localized cascade of orbital object collisions that could transform stakeholder perceptions and enables active debris removal deployment.