Potential Productivity Model (M3P) as a Planning Tool for Degraded Pastures in the Amazon Deforestation Arc, Brazil

The Amazon Deforestation Arc remains a critical region for environmental governance, where land-use strategies must consider distinct legal and institutional frameworks across the Amazon and Cerrado biomes. This study applies the Potential Productivity Model (M3P), a theoretical radiation-based framework, to estimate the upper physiological limits of sugarcane ( Saccharum officinarum L.) productivity on degraded pastures within the Arc of Deforestation. The model integrates satellite-derived solar radiation with climatic variables to quantify potential productivity under optimal biophysical conditions, providing an objective benchmark for planning-oriented bioenergy assessments. Estimated potential yields range from 153 to 178 t·ha −1 ·yr −1 , consistent with global reference values reported for sugarcane in high-radiation environments and relevant for informing public policies such as Brazil’s Agroecological Zoning of Sugarcane. The results demonstrate that agroclimatic potential alone is insufficient to guide land-use decisions. While degraded pastures associated with the Cerrado biome may accommodate sugarcane cultivation as part of productive land recovery strategies, areas belonging to the Amazon biome require priority actions focused on ecological restoration through agroforestry and integrated crop–livestock–forest systems. Overall, the M3P model offers a scalable and scientifically grounded decision-support framework for strategic planning in environmentally sensitive tropical regions.