Rethinking Urban Park Equity: A People-Centered Assessment of Supply–Demand Mismatch Using Mobile Phone Data

Whether urban park supply effectively responds to residents’ actual use remains a critical issue for public service provision, residents’ health and well-being, and spatial equity in high-density cities. Conventional assessments based on static population data may fail to capture dynamic patterns of human activity, potentially obscuring mismatches between service provision and real demand. This study integrates mobile phone signaling data into a supply–demand assessment framework to evaluate urban park systems from a dynamic population perspective. The framework is applied to Shenzhen as a representative high-density megacity. Park supply is measured by service capacity, coverage, and accessibility, while demand is derived from observed visitation behavior. A Supply–Demand Ratio (SDR) index, combined with Getis-Ord Gi* analysis, is employed to identify spatial patterns of mismatch. The results reveal substantial supply–demand imbalances that are not captured by traditional static indicators, with approximately 30.9% of communities identified as significant cold spots. High-density central areas exhibit a persistent deficit in park services despite relatively high coverage levels, whereas peripheral areas with abundant ecological resources show relative surpluses. These patterns are closely associated with urban functional structure, population mobility, and jobs–housing separation. By uncovering the divergence between nominal accessibility and actual use, this study highlights the limitations of place-based planning approaches and underscores the need for a people-centered perspective. The findings point to the importance of shifting from “opportunity equity” to “outcome equity” in evaluating and improving urban public service provision to foster sustainable urban development.