An Integrated LEAP–InVEST Framework for MRV-Aligned Carbon Neutrality Planning: A Case Study of National Dong Hwa University, Taiwan

Universities worldwide are increasingly committing to carbon neutrality; however, most institutional climate strategies treat operational emissions forecasting and ecosystem-based carbon sequestration as separate analytical domains, leading to inconsistencies in accounting boundaries, temporal alignment, and verification practices. This study develops and demonstrates an integrated LEAP–InVEST framework that explicitly links energy-system modeling with spatial ecosystem carbon accounting within a unified monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV)-aligned structure. The framework combines the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) for scenario-based greenhouse gas emissions modeling with the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model for spatial carbon storage assessment. A key methodological contribution lies in reconciling emission flows and carbon stock changes by converting carbon stock variations into annualized removal flows, thereby enabling consistent estimation of gross emissions, carbon removals, and net emissions while avoiding double counting across scopes. Using a university campus in Taiwan as a case study, a baseline inventory was established following ISO 14064-1 standards, and future emissions trajectories were simulated under Business-as-Usual and mitigation pathways through 2040. In parallel, land-use and land-cover data were used to quantify historical and projected carbon stocks across forest, grassland, agricultural, and built-up areas. Results indicate that electricity consumption constitutes the dominant emissions source, and that energy efficiency improvements, photovoltaic deployment, and green power procurement provide the largest mitigation potential. Although ecosystem carbon stocks remain substantial, their annual sequestration capacity offsets only a limited portion of projected emissions, reinforcing the importance of prioritizing emissions reduction before applying nature-based removals. The proposed framework provides a transferable methodological approach for institutional carbon neutrality planning by integrating emissions reduction and carbon sequestration within a coherent analytical system. By aligning energy modeling, ecosystem dynamics, and MRV principles, the framework enhances the transparency, credibility, and robustness of net-zero pathway assessment and is applicable to universities and compact urban systems seeking data-driven and verifiable decarbonization strategies.