Assessing the Economic Impact of the IMO Mid-Term Measures on the Korean Economy

The International Maritime Organization (IMO) established an initial strategy for maritime decarbonization and later specified its long-term target of achieving net-zero strategy by 2050. The institutional framework for mid-term measures was introduced by IMO, and mid-term measures were originally scheduled to be adopted at the end of 2025, but will be re-discussed in 2026 due to opposition from some current member states; South Korea relies on maritime transport for over 99% of its total import/export volume, meaning that the national shipping sector constitutes a core infrastructure supporting trade-driven economic activity. However, mid-term measures are expected to increase logistics costs and weaken route competitiveness and contract markets, affecting individual shipping companies and the entire export–import industrial base. However, quantitative analyses of the cross-industry ripple effects remain limited. Existing studies assess regulatory burdens on shipping but rarely estimate economy-wide spillovers or provide empirical guidance for policy strategies. Therefore, research is needed to move beyond regulatory interpretation, assess domestic response capabilities, and quantitatively analyze the macroeconomic impacts of mid-term measures to support sound policy decision-making. This study aims to quantitatively evaluate the nationwide economic impact of the IMO mid-term measures and propose strategic policy solutions for effective domestic responses.