Beyond Averages: A Multilevel Analysis of Digital Skills and Circular Economy Outcomes in the Twin Transition

The European “Twin Transition” paradigm assumes a synergy between digital transformation and environmental sustainability, yet empirical evidence remains mixed, particularly in transition economies. This study examines the relationship between digital human capital and circular economy performance in Southeastern Europe (Slovenia, Croatia, Bulgaria, Romania, and Serbia). The study applies a multilevel quantitative research design combining correlation analysis, linear regression, and spatial assessment to examine the relationship between digital human capital and circular economy performance. The results indicate a moderate relationship between digital competencies and recycling performance. At the same time, regional analysis reveals that higher digital capacity does not consistently correspond to higher circular outcomes. The findings also show that national-level indicators may mask substantial territorial disparities, suggesting that aggregate indicators may not fully capture regional variation. The effectiveness of the digital–circular relationship appears to depend on broader structural conditions, including institutional capacity and infrastructure. The study highlights the importance of spatial context in understanding the twin transition in Southeastern Europe.