Assessing Ecological Vulnerability in the Northern Guangdong Mountains Using Deep Learning

Ecological vulnerability assessment serves as a prerequisite for ecological governance, yet evaluating large-scale ecological vulnerability remains challenging. To address this challenge, this study integrates geological elements into ecological vulnerability assessment, taking Ruyuan Area in the Northern Guangdong Mountains, China, as a case study. The area faces ecological hazards such as land desertification and soil erosion, indicating severe governance challenges. This study selected 14 ecological vulnerability factors and constructed assessment models based on Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) and Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs). A total of 800 ecological vulnerability sampling points were obtained by combining field survey data with remote sensing imagery. The models were trained using binary vulnerability labels. The resulting continuous probability outputs were then classified into five vulnerability levels using the natural breaks method to generate the final ecological vulnerability map. It should be noted that the multi-level vulnerability map represents graded probability-based differentiation rather than supervised multi-class prediction. Model performance was validated using three metrics: Area Under Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (AUC–ROC), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). The CNN (AUC = 0.916) model outperformed the DNN model (AUC = 0.895). According to the CNN-based classification results, non-vulnerable, slightly vulnerable, mildly vulnerable, moderately vulnerable, and highly vulnerable areas accounted for 36.19%, 22.85%, 14.24%, 12.31%, and 14.41% of the total area, respectively. High ecological vulnerability zones were concentrated in Daqiao, Luoyang, Dabu, and parts of Rucheng towns, with soil parent material and vegetation coverage identified as the main contributing factors, among which parent material was the most important. This finding underscores the notable impact of geological factors on local ecological vulnerability. Based on these results, nine ecological–geological subareas were delineated, and targeted ecological protection and restoration recommendations were proposed. This study, employing machine learning techniques, constructed an ecological vulnerability assessment model incorporating geological elements, thereby providing scientific support for targeted ecological governance in the study area.