The Total Factor Carbon Productivity Effect of the Low-Carbon City Pilot Policy from the Perspective of Sustainable Transformation: Heterogeneity Differentiation and Spatial Synergistic Gain

Amid accelerating urbanization, tensions between economic growth and environmental protection have become increasingly salient. Improving Total Factor Carbon Productivity (TFCP) is crucial for achieving sustainable urban development. Drawing on panel data for 282 Chinese prefecture-level cities from 2009 to 2021, this paper examines the effects and underlying mechanisms of the Low-Carbon City Pilot (LCCP) policy on urban TFCP. The results suggest that the LCCP policy noticeably contributes to higher TFCP, and the finding remains valid after robustness checks and endogeneity corrections. The impact of the policy exhibits marked variation, yielding stronger gains in western regions of China, in small- and medium-sized cities, in cities not dependent on resource extraction, and in major transportation nodes. Technological progress, the optimization of industrial structure, and advances in economic development serve as key intermediary mechanisms. Moreover, the LCCP policy exhibits positive spatial spillover effects that help lift TFCP in neighboring cities. These findings provide empirical support for differentiated low-carbon policy design and regional coordinated low-carbon development, and carry considerable practical and strategic significance for balancing high-quality economic development and ecological protection.