Impact of Emergency Industry Demonstration Base Policy on the Effectiveness of Safety Production Governance for Sustainable Development: Evidence from Multi-Temporal DID Based on Provincial Panel Data

The implementation of the national emergency industry demonstration bases’ policies is a new way to achieve safety production governance and a key factor in improving the effectiveness of national safety production governance. This study regards China’s national emergency industry demonstration bases’ policies as a quasi-natural experiment. Based on panel data from 31 provinces in China from 2010 to 2022, a multi-period difference in differences (DID) model is conducted to systematically evaluate the impact and mechanism of this policy on China’s safety production governance. The results show that this policy significantly reduced the death rate of safety production accidents with a GDP of 100 million yuan and has a significant governance improvement effect. Further analysis of the mediating effect shows that policies mainly exert governance effects by increasing public safety financial investment and promoting innovation output. The heterogeneity analysis results indicate that policy effects are more significant in regions with weaker energy-resource industrial bases and lower levels of digital development, suggesting that the marginal governance benefits of policies are mainly concentrated in areas with relatively weak supporting conditions for safety governance. This study makes three primary contributions to the literature. Theoretically, it expands the safety governance paradigm by shifting the focus from traditional administrative “command and control” regulations to market-driven industrial agglomeration. Methodologically, by utilizing a multi-period DID model, it overcomes endogeneity issues prevalent in prior correlation-based studies to rigorously identify causal effects. Empirically, it opens the “black box” of policy transmission by validating dual pathways—fiscal resource allocation and technological innovation—while highlighting a critical “filling the gap” marginal utility effect in resource-constrained regions. This study empirically reveals the mechanism and context-dependent characteristics of industrial policies in safety governance, providing empirical evidence for understanding the inherent logic between industrial policies, public safety governance, and regional sustainable development. It offers practical insights for optimizing the precise implementation and resource allocation of emergency industrial policies to foster socially sustainable and resilient industrial growth.