Sustainable Coastal Safety: Hydrodynamic Modeling of Drowning Risk Zones at Ras El-Bar, Nile Delta, Egypt

Ras El-Bar, a premier historic coastal resort on Egypt’s Nile Delta, has experienced a marked increase in drowning incidents in recent years, despite the presence of extensive coastal protection structures. While these measures, particularly detached breakwaters (DBWs), groins, and port jetties, were originally implemented to mitigate shoreline erosion, their influence on nearshore hydrodynamics and swimmer safety remains insufficiently understood. In this context, the present study integrates high-resolution bathymetric data, remote sensing observations, and coupled numerical modeling (CMS-Wave and CMS-Flow) to examine how these interventions have altered wave–current interactions. The results indicate that the modified coastal setting produces distinct flow regimes, ranging from weak offshore currents (<0.1 m/s) to moderate rip currents (≈0.25 m/s) within DBW shadow zones, and locally intensified flows exceeding 0.7 m/s in shallow nearshore areas. These conditions facilitate the development of vortices and persistent rip currents, particularly within inter-DBW embayments. A simulation-based swimming risk map was developed by integrating water depth and simulated current characteristics, classifying the coastline into safe, moderate-risk, and high-risk zones. High-risk zones, concentrated within inter-DBW embayments at depths exceeding 2 m, show broad spatial agreement with available drowning and rescue incident records, subject to the limitations of the informal dataset, while the shallow accretional shadow zones landward of the DBWs exhibit comparatively lower hydrodynamic energy and safer conditions. Overall, the study demonstrates that coastal protection structures, although effective in controlling erosion, may unintentionally increase human risk when safety considerations are not incorporated into their design and management. Accordingly, a set of integrated, sustainability-oriented measures is proposed, including enhanced real-time monitoring, regulated beach access, adaptive sand nourishment, and targeted public awareness, with the aim of achieving a more balanced and resilient approach to coastal zone management.