Coupling Coordination Between Transport Development Level and Carbon Emission Intensity in China: Spatiotemporal Patterns and Regional Heterogeneity

Under the strategic context of building a transportation powerhouse in China, the transportation sector faces the dual challenge of reducing emissions while improving efficiency. This study constructs a two-dimensional regional classification framework based on the “economic-carbon” dimension and systematically investigates the coordinated evolution of the development level (TD) and carbon emission intensity (TCEI) of the transportation systems in 31 provinces of China from 2014 to 2023, using methods such as entropy weight TOPSIS, the coupling coordination degree (CCD) model, kernel density estimation (KDE), spatial autocorrelation analysis, and the XGBoost-SHAP explainable machine learning framework based on transfer learning. The study finds that (1) TD shows a fluctuating upward trend, while TCEI continues to decline, with regional imbalances; (2) in terms of time, CCD shows a general upward trend with an N-shaped evolution; spatially, CCD presents a pattern of stronger coordination in the east and weaker in the west, with sustained regional heterogeneity, forming a development pattern of “Region I leading, Region II breaking through, Region III maintaining, Region IV catching up”; and (3) regarding the driving factors, freight volume, transport industry output value, and passenger turnover are the core driving factors of CCD, with significant regional heterogeneity in their mechanisms. This study provides a systematic analytical framework and differentiated policy tools for promoting coordinated regional development of green transportation.