From Delays to Opportunities: Data-Driven Strategies for Bus Priority at Signalized Intersections

Never has the analysis of bus travel times been so essential to transit planning: travelers complain about a decline in service quality, urban congestion is on the rise, and public transport companies struggle with a structural driver shortage. This research paper aims to address the urgent need to explore new tools to increase commercial speed on transit lines while avoiding costly, potentially inefficient technological investments. A data-driven, cost-neutral, and replicable methodological framework is proposed to provide a first-order estimation of the potential benefits of Transit Signal Priority (TSP) at signalized intersections. The approach is based on Automatic Vehicle Monitoring (AVM) data analysis, which is underpinned by a lean network representation logic built from origin/destination pairs of stops located upstream and downstream of signalized intersections. Bus travel inter-times across network arcs are compared between peak and off-peak periods through a two-level analytical process that progressively refines the estimation of recoverable delay. The methodology is applied to the urban bus network of Pavia (Italy), operated by Autoguidovie S.p.A. (one of the most important Local Public Transport companies in Italy), with a specific focus on the high-frequency PV3 line. Results indicate a potential reduction of up to approximately 6 h and 45 min of operating time per day at the line level (−13.5% of total driving time), and up to 2 min per trip along a 2 km corridor (−6% along the single corridor selected). The procedure integrates both infrastructural and operational perspectives, supporting preliminary decision-making on TSP implementation using only data already collected by transit agencies.