Trade-Offs and Synergies of Ecosystem Services and the Construction of Ecological Security Patterns: A Case Study of the Zhengzhou Metropolitan Area

Responding to rapid urbanization, this study examines the trade-offs and synergies of ecosystem services (ESs) at the county scale in the Zhengzhou metropolitan area and constructs an ecological security pattern. Using the InVEST model, we quantified carbon storage (CS), soil conservation (SC), habitat quality (HQ), water yield (WY), and food production (FP). We then analyzed their trade-offs and synergies using the geographically weighted regression model, identified driving factors with an optimal parameter-based geographical detector model, detected ecosystem service bundles via a Self-organizing map model, and constructed an ecological security pattern based on circuit theory. The results showed that: (1) From 2003 to 2023, ES spatial distribution remained stable overall, with weak trade-offs and synergies. Locally, WY and HQ declined, while SC and FP increased. (2) Slope and DEM enhanced SC, whereas urban expansion consistently weakened CS, HQ, and FP. Moreover, slope played an increasingly prominent role in regulating WY. (3) Key synergistic bundles with stable spatiotemporal distribution were identified as ecological sources, leading to the construction of ecological security pattern characterized by “four districts, one corridor, and one belt.” This provides a framework for integrating ecological space protection and restoration into urban development.