Climate Change and Mandarin Production: Panel Evidence from Türkiye

Mandarin production has expanded rapidly in Türkiye in recent years, while climatic conditions in major citrus-growing regions have shifted. This study examines how climate variability relates to mandarin production using a provincial panel dataset covering the period 2004–2023. The analysis includes ten provinces that account for almost all national output. Mean annual temperature and total precipitation are used as climatic variables, alongside economic factors such as population, agricultural energy use, and lagged producer prices. Panel data models are employed to capture both temporal and regional variation, incorporating climatic and economic factors, including adaptation-related conditions such as agricultural energy use. The results show a consistent negative relationship between temperature and mandarin production, indicating that higher temperatures are associated with lower output levels. Precipitation does not exhibit a statistically significant effect, which likely reflects the widespread use of irrigation systems that reduce direct dependence on rainfall in citrus production. Economic variables are positively associated with production, suggesting that market conditions and production intensity also shape output dynamics. The findings point to temperature as the main climatic constraint in Mediterranean citrus systems and indicate that rising temperatures may increase production risks in coastal regions. These results contribute crop-specific evidence to the climate–agriculture literature and highlight the need to consider both climatic and economic factors when evaluating the sustainability of fruit production systems.