Evolution of Typical Forest-Enclosed Village Landscape Patterns on the West Sichuan Plain and Their Ecological Risk Assessment: A Case Study of Chongzhou City

The Linpan in western Sichuan is a composite rural landscape of “household-water-forest-field” on the Chengdu Plain. Under the interference of human activities, problems such as landscape fragmentation and ecological function degradation have become increasingly serious, threatening regional ecological security. The specific components involved in the “study on ecological risk sequence” include landscape disturbance degree, landscape vulnerability degree, landscape connectivity, and human activity intensity. Given the lack of long-term ecological risk research on the Linpan landscape in Chongzhou City to support conservation decisions, this study takes it as the object. Based on five phases of land use data from 2003 to 2023, a landscape ecological risk assessment model was constructed. This model is a deterministic and nonlinear comprehensive evaluation model. The determinism is reflected in the fact that, based on specific influencing factors, a unique and definite result can be obtained through a fixed indicator system and calculation method. The nonlinearity is reflected in the fact that the comprehensive risk index does not involve a simple linear superposition of the various factors; instead, the evaluation result is obtained by integrating the factors through nonlinear approaches such as weighted coupling. Using ArcGIS and spatial analysis methods, based on a temporal resolution of 5 years and a spatial resolution of 30 m, the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics were revealed. The results show that: (1) From 2003 to 2023, the Linpan landscape pattern in Chongzhou City underwent significant evolution, characterized by “reduction in agricultural land, expansion of construction land, and slight recovery of ecological land”. Landscape fragmentation intensified, connectivity decreased, but overall aggregation remained stable. (2) The evolution of the landscape pattern drove the ecological risk to show a stable pattern of “low in the northwest and high in the southeast”. The global Moran’s I value decreased from 0.887 to 0.832, indicating that risk aggregation intensified in the early period and was alleviated in the later period. (3) Landscape disturbance degree is the key factor dominating the change in the comprehensive ecological risk index. Compared with similar studies, this research shares the commonality of urbanization-driven fragmentation exacerbation risk, but also exhibits the uniqueness of Linpan structural resilience and conservation policies promoting a reduction in high-risk areas. This study can provide a scientific basis for Linpan protection, land use optimization, and ecological security pattern construction in Chongzhou City.