Optimal Preventive Maintenance Timing for Expressway Asphalt Pavements Based on PMS Deterioration Modeling and Life-Cycle Cost Analysis

The preventive maintenance (PM) of asphalt pavements reduces life-cycle costs and minimizes resource consumption compared with reactive rehabilitation, yet its cost-effectiveness is highly sensitive to application timing. This study develops a data-driven framework for determining optimal PM timing on Korean expressways by integrating network-level pavement management system (PMS) deterioration modeling with life-cycle cost analysis (LCCA). Using 10-year PMS time-series data from approximately 2200 asphalt pavement sections (2012–2021), a nonlinear regression of the Highway Pavement Condition Index (HPCI) yielded an exponential deterioration model with exponent β = 1.87 (R 2 = 0.996), confirming accelerating deterioration beyond a critical service age. The HPCI inflection coincides with the Grade-2 boundary (3.5–4.0), where surface distress growth—dominated by linear cracking (91.3% of total SD)—also peaks. A LCCA across 44 scenarios demonstrated that PM applied immediately before this acceleration onset minimizes the 40-year net present value (NPV; discount rate 4.5%). The optimal first PM application time was estimated at 10.8 years (≈56% of the 19.3-year average service life), reducing the 40-year NPV by up to 7 million KRW per section relative to the milling and overlay baseline (up to 16 million KRW in absolute NPV terms for concrete overlay sections). These findings provide a quantitative, reproducible basis for PM timing decisions applicable to the approximately 4000 km of expressway pavement managed by Korea Expressway Corporation.