Assessing Water Quality Variations and Their Driving Forces in Lake Erhai, China: Implications for Sustainable Water Resource Management

Lake Erhai is an important plateau freshwater lake in China. It serves not only as a crucial drinking water source for the local region but also as the core area of the Cangshan Erhai National Nature Reserve. Consequently, Lake Erhai plays an extremely significant role in the local economy, society, and ecology. Since 2000, the water quality of Lake Erhai has continuously deteriorated, showing a eutrophic trend. To identify the primary driving forces behind these water quality changes, this study employed stepwise regression analysis. Climate conditions, socio-economic development within the basin, and implementation of environmental protection measures (IEPMs) were considered influencing factors for a comprehensive and systematic analysis of Lake Erhai’s water quality. The results indicate that rising air temperature may increase total phosphorus (TP) concentration, while rainfall may elevate both TP and total nitrogen (TN) levels. In contrast, higher wind speed may reduce chemical oxygen demand (COD Mn ), TP, and TN concentrations. Socio-economic development, meanwhile, may contribute to increased COD Mn concentration. Based on these findings, this paper proposes recommendations focusing on formulating more effective non-point source pollution control measures and strengthening water quality monitoring in Lake Erhai during summer. By identifying the key natural and anthropogenic drivers of water quality changes in Lake Erhai, this study provides a scientific basis for the development of targeted pollution control strategies and directly contributes to the protection of clean water sources. Moreover, its revelation of the coupled impacts of climate change and socio-economic activities enhances understanding of plateau lake ecosystem resilience. This insight is critical for ensuring regional ecological security and serves as a model for advancing sustainable development goals in similar lake systems worldwide.