Integrating Machine Learning and Operations Research for Sustainable Demand Forecasting and Production Planning in Craft Breweries

The Brazilian craft beer market has experienced continuous growth, increasing operational challenges for small- and medium-sized breweries that frequently rely on empirical and spreadsheet-based production routines. These practices often lead to inefficient resource allocation, production instability, and sustainability concerns. This study proposes an integrated analytical framework combining Machine Learning (ML) and Operations Research (OR) to improve demand forecasting and production planning. The methodology is based on a synthetic dataset calibrated to the operational conditions of a Brasília-based craft brewery, incorporating realistic demand patterns such as seasonality, trend, and intermittency across multiple SKUs over an 18-month horizon. Forecasting models—including Moving Average, Single Exponential Smoothing, and a global ML-based proxy—were evaluated using rolling-origin validation. The resulting probabilistic forecasts were integrated into a capacity-constrained optimization model based on linear programming, extended with risk-aware decision-making using Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR). The results indicate that the ML-based approach achieved competitive forecasting performance (sMAPE = 5.83% and MAE = 11.76) while enabling the generation of capacity-feasible and risk-aware production plans aligned with service-level targets. The integration of probabilistic forecasts into the optimization model allowed explicit trade-offs between cost, service level, and resource utilization. The main contribution of this study lies in demonstrating how the integration of predictive and prescriptive analytics can support more sustainable production planning in resource-constrained manufacturing environments. By replacing ad hoc spreadsheet routines with a closed-loop decision-support system, the proposed framework advances the literature on data-driven PPC and provides practical guidance for SMEs operating under uncertainty.