Unveiling the Spatially Heterogeneous Driving Mechanisms of Net Migration in Chinese Cities: A Geographically Weighted Random Forest Approach

As China transitions from rapid urbanization to high-quality development, the competition for population among cities has intensified, characterized by a shift from labor-intensive migration to multi-dimensional lifestyle choices. However, traditional migration models often assume global linearity, failing to capture the complex non-linear thresholds and spatial non-stationarity inherent in migration decisions. This study employs a novel Geographically Weighted Random Forest (GWRF) model to analyze net migration flows across 278 Chinese cities using high-granularity mobile signaling data from the 2020 Spring Festival travel rush. The results reveal that GWRF significantly outperforms traditional OLS, GWR, and global Random Forest models, effectively handling spatial heterogeneity and non-linearity. Wage levels are the dominant global driver, exhibiting a distinct “S-curve” non-linear threshold, while population scale shows a significant U-shaped effect, highlighting the transition from agglomeration economies to congestion costs. Migration drivers exhibit profound spatial heterogeneity: western inland cities are “wage-driven,” the Pearl River Delta is “employment-structure driven,” and the northeastern “Rust Belt” is increasingly sensitive to “innovation investment” (technology expenditure). These findings challenge the “one-size-fits-all” approach to population policy, offering precise, spatially targeted strategies for urban planners to mitigate population shrinkage and enhance urban vitality.