Soil Carbon Dynamics and Greenhouse Gas Reduction Potential of Arundo donax -Based Sustainable Aviation Fuel in China’s Bohai Rim Region

The development of bioenergy crops on saline–alkaline land has been recognized as a potential pathway for both land restoration and combating global warming. However, the role of soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics under such conditions remains insufficiently quantified in long-term assessments. In this study, an exploratory assessment was conducted to evaluate the long-term soil carbon sequestration (SCS) potential and life-cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) produced from Arundo donax in the Bohai Rim region of China. The CENTURY model was integrated with Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) time series forecasting to simulate SOC dynamics under future climate scenarios (2024–2035). Compared with the original CENTURY simulation, the LSTM model yielded a substantially more conservative estimate of SOC accumulation, with an Ensemble Mean SCS rate of 0.032 t C/ha/a and a 95% confidence interval ranging from −0.079 to 0.143 t C/ha/a. This result indicates a positive regional average tendency toward soil carbon sequestration, while also suggesting that some locations may behave as carbon sources under less favorable climatic conditions. The total SCS potential across the study area was estimated at 0.615 Tg C. When these soil carbon benefits were incorporated into the life-cycle assessment of Fischer–Tropsch (F-T) SAF, the pathway could become potentially net-negative under the adopted assumptions, reaching −32.1 g CO 2 e/MJ, which corresponds to a potential reduction of 136.1% relative to fossil aviation fuel. These results should be interpreted as exploratory and scenario-based, given that large-scale cultivation of Arundo donax has not yet been established in the Bohai Rim region and the assessment therefore relies on assumptions. Beyond GHG mitigation, the cultivation of Arundo donax on degraded saline–alkaline soils may also have potential relevance to broader sustainability objectives, including SDG 13 (Climate Action) and SDG 15 (Life on Land). These findings highlight the possible synergies among energy crop cultivation, soil restoration, and climate neutrality goals, and provide preliminary insights for integrating marginal land utilization into sustainable land management and low-carbon aviation strategies.