Long-Term Spatiotemporal Assessment of Land-Use Change, Drought Stress, and Vegetation Resilience in Alabama’s Black Belt: Implications for Sustainable Agricultural Resource Management

Climate-induced drought and intensifying land-use pressures threaten ecosystem services and agricultural productivity, particularly in regions with distinctive soil and ecological characteristics. Alabama’s Black Belt, defined by its clay-rich soils and shaped by a legacy of plantation agriculture, uneven land tenure, and persistent socioeconomic disadvantage, is increasingly vulnerable to these interacting stressors. This study analyzes long-term (2000–2023) spatiotemporal patterns of Land Use Land Cover (LULC) change and vegetation response to drought to inform sustainable resource management. Multi-temporal Landsat imagery and National Land Cover Database (NLCD) products were used to quantify LULC dynamics. At the same time, vegetation condition and moisture stress were assessed using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Normalized Difference Moisture Index (NDMI). Drought conditions were evaluated using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), which incorporates temperature-driven evaporative demand. Results indicate substantial landscape change, including declines in deciduous forest (−17.78%) and pasture/hay (−13.17%), alongside increases in medium-intensity developed land (+20.25%) and evergreen forest (+10.62%). Declining NDVI and NDMI values indicate increasing vegetation stress, particularly during prolonged droughts. Vegetation response exhibited a weak relationship with SPI (R = 0.37) but a stronger association with SPEI (R = 0.59), underscoring the importance of accounting for atmospheric water demand. These findings highlight the growing vulnerability of Black Belt ecosystems to coupled climate and land-use pressures and provide insights to strengthen climate-resilient agricultural management.