Multi-Scenario Simulation of Land Use in the Western Songnen Plain of Northeast China Under the Constraint of Ecological Security

The Western Songnen Plain, a critical yet ecologically fragile grain-producing area, is facing sustainability risks arising from rapid land use changes, which demand scientific assessment and regulation. From an ecological security standpoint, this study synthesizes multiple data sources, including GlobeLand30 data, climate, topography, and soil data. Based on the assessment of water conservation, soil conservation and biodiversity maintenance, combined with minimum cumulative resistance model (MCR) and the CLUMondo model, this study comprehensively reveals the dynamic evolutionary patterns of land use in the Western Songnen Plain over the past two decades, concurrently analyzed the spatial heterogeneity pattern of ecosystem services, and further simulated land use changes under natural growth, farmland protection, and ecological security scenarios. According to the results, the grassland area decreased significantly, while cropland and construction land continued to expand. Water conservation, soil conservation, and habitat quality displayed remarkable regional differences, with high values predominantly situated in wetlands, grasslands, and mountainous regions. In contrast, low values exhibited strong spatial correspondence with regions of heightened anthropogenic disturbance. Although the cropland protection scenario promoted agricultural intensification, it reduced ecological heterogeneity. In contrast, the ecological security scenario achieved a higher patch density (0.408) and landscape diversity (1.142) compared to the natural growth scenario, with moderate increases in aggregation. This study identified 27 ecological pinch points, 24 ecological barrier points, and 97 ecological corridors, which provide direct support for regional water and soil resource protection and further underpin the constructed ecological security pattern of “two belts, three zones, and multiple nodes”. These findings have important reference significance for optimizing regional land use structure and maintaining the stability of terrestrial ecosystems in the Western Songnen Plain.