Rural Development Support and Agri-Food Transformation in Lithuania: Evidence from 2000–2025

This paper examines how rural development support was associated with changes in Lithuania’s agri-food sector between 2000 and 2025 across successive Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) programming periods. Integrating complementary theoretical perspectives, the study assesses whether policy interventions were linked to structural transformation, market upgrading, partial innovation deepening, and sustainability-oriented change, or whether they primarily reinforced existing agri-food development paths. Methodologically, the research employs a quantitative, longitudinal, descriptive–analytical design, combining time-series analysis with comparative policy-cycle analysis. By tracing both incremental adjustments and more pronounced structural shifts over the 2000–2025 period, the paper provides an evidence-based assessment of how rural development support aligned with sectoral change. The findings suggest that the observed trajectory is most consistent with modernization, consolidation, and market upgrading, while innovation-led transformation appears more uneven and concentrated in downstream processing than in primary agriculture. The results contribute to debates on the calibration of rural development instruments and offer implications for future policy design in small open economies undergoing agri-food restructuring.