Research on Evolution Characteristics and Dynamic Mechanism of Global Photovoltaic Raw Material Trade Network Under the Carbon Neutrality Target

With the acceleration of the global energy transition, the photovoltaic industry has become a significant force in the promotion of green development, and photovoltaic raw materials play a crucial role in this process. In this paper, 177 countries during the period of 2001 to 2024 were taken as the research subjects, with a focus on polysilicon and silicon wafers as components of upstream photovoltaic raw materials. Through a combination of the evolutionary analysis of nodes, the overall structure, and the three-dimensional structure with an exponential random graph model, the evolution and dynamic mechanisms of the global photovoltaic raw material trade network are explored. The study reveals the following: (1) The global PV raw material trade volume tended to increase from 2001 to 2024. (2) The global photovoltaic raw material trade network showed a tendency towards the “enhanced dominance of core countries and denser trade connections,” with the trade volume between core countries continuously expanding and the network density, average clustering coefficient, and connection efficiency increasing annually, which is a reflection of the globalization and regional cooperation of the global photovoltaic industry. (3) From the weighted out-degree and in-degree ranking evolution of the global photovoltaic raw materials trade network, it can be seen that China consolidated its core position, while Southeast Asian countries tended to transfer their processing and manufacturing links. The status of the United States and traditional industrial powers gradually declined, which is a reflection of the restructuring of the global industrial chain along with regional geopolitical agglomeration effects. (4) Internal attributes such as the national economic level, population size, and urbanization rate, as well as external network effects such as common language and geographical proximity, significantly influence the formation path of the photovoltaic raw material trade network. Moreover, the network exhibits distinct heterogeneous complementarity mechanisms and path dependence characteristics, with a structural evolution that tends toward stability and cooperative relationships showing significant time inertia. Overall, the global trade volume of photovoltaic raw materials continues to grow, and the core positions of major countries such as China, the United States, and Germany remain prominent but show a transitional trend towards Southeast Asian countries. The strengthening of the level of coordination and cooperation among global photovoltaic raw material producers to ensure supply chain stability, promote resource sharing and technological progress, and achieve the sustainable development of green energy policies is necessary.