Narrowing the Gap: Spatiotemporal Evolution, Convergence, and Policy Implications of China’s Green Inclusive Growth

Green inclusive growth is a crucial strategic choice for achieving high-quality development in China. This study constructs an indicator system encompassing economic, social, and ecological dimensions to quantitatively measure the level of green inclusive growth across 31 provinces (cities, autonomous regions) in China from 2001 to 2021. The regional disparities, spatiotemporal evolution trends, and convergence characteristics are analyzed using the Dagum Gini coefficient, kernel density function, and σ-convergence and conditional β-convergence. The findings indicate the following: (1) China’s green inclusive growth generally exhibits a “high in the east, low in the west” spatial distribution pattern, with western regions demonstrating a catching-up trend. (2) The regional disparities in China’s green inclusive growth levels are showing a trend of gradual narrowing, though imbalances within eastern and western regions remain relatively pronounced. (3) The kernel density curve of China’s green inclusive growth maintains a “unimodal” shape, with no significant polarization or multi-polar differentiation. (4) Both the national level and the four major regional clusters exhibit σ-convergence and conditional β-convergence in green inclusive growth, demonstrating the effectiveness of policies aimed at reducing regional disparities. (5) Social capital, human capital, technological innovation, material capital investment, foreign direct investment, urbanization level, and government fiscal expenditure all have a positive promoting effect on China’s green and inclusive growth. These results provide decision-making references for promoting coordinated regional development and guiding the inclusive and green transformation of China’s economic growth.