From Private Cars to Micromobility: Network Modeling and Environmental Assessment of Short-Distance Trips in Izmir

Urban transportation systems face increasing sustainability challenges due to the dominance of private-car use, particularly for short-distance trips. This study investigates the potential of micromobility to replace private-car travel on short-distance journeys and evaluates the resulting impacts on urban transportation networks and environmental sustainability. The analysis focuses on the Bornova district of Izmir and is based on a face-to-face survey conducted with 502 private-vehicle users. Survey data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, chi-square tests and a binary logit regression model to identify factors influencing the willingness to adopt micromobility. Within the surveyed sample of private-car users, modal-shift rates were estimated as 35% for trips up to 5 km and 33% for trips between 5 and 10 km. These rates were applied to the private-car demand and distance matrices developed for the year 2030 within the scope of the Izmir Transportation Master Plan, resulting in a revised private-car demand matrix and a separate demand matrix representing potential micromobility users. Network assignments were performed in the PTV VISUM modeling environment. Assignment results demonstrate notable network-level changes following micromobility integration. The total length of road segments with micromobility traffic volumes exceeding a threshold of 10 veh/h was calculated at 292.5 km. Environmental impacts were evaluated using a life-cycle assessment (LCA) framework, revealing an approximate 5.5% reduction in total life-cycle CO 2 emissions. Overall, the findings provide quantitative evidence supporting micromobility as an effective component of sustainable urban transport strategies and offer guidance for local governments in infrastructure planning and policy development.