Research on Water Resource Security Evaluation and Regulation Strategies for Multi-Source Water Supply Cities

The acceleration of urbanization and the intensification of climate change have highlighted the vulnerability of the single-source water supply model. Multi-source water supply has become the core path to alleviate the contradiction between urban water supply and demand and enhance the stability of water supply. To scientifically control the water resource security level of multi-source water supply cities and predict the development trend, Jinan, a typical multi-source water supply city, was taken as an example. Based on the vitality–organizational capacity–resilience model framework, which focuses on the inherent resilience and health of the system itself and can simultaneously characterize the dual characteristics of the natural base and social disturbances of the water resource system, a water resource security evaluation system was constructed from three dimensions: system vitality, organizational capacity and resilience. The combined weights were determined by comprehensively applying the projection pursuit method and the CRITIC method. The gray clustering method was used to evaluate the water resource security status from 2015 to 2023. The results showed that the water resource security level in Jinan had shown a significant improvement trend from fluctuating and unstable to high-quality and stable. The driving mechanism had gradually shifted from relying on natural endowments and single water-saving control in the early stage to a highly coordinated “vitality–organizational capacity–resilience” model within the system. The evaluation system constructed in this paper could provide technical support for multi-source water supply cities to optimize water source allocation strategies and improve water resource emergency management mechanisms, and also offer a reference model for similar cities to conduct research on water resource security control.