The Hidden Cost of Misaligned Admissions on University Dropout: Implications for Institutional Sustainability, Human Capital, and Socio-Educational Stratification

College dropout is a global challenge due to its high prevalence and its consequences for individuals, institutions, and society, particularly in terms of institutional sustainability, inefficient use of public resources, and human capital loss. This issue is especially salient in engineering, where first-year dropout rates remain high. This study examines factors associated with first-year dropout among engineering students at a Chilean public university, framing dropout as a sustainability challenge for higher education systems. The analysis combines administrative records ( n = 825 ) with survey data on psychosocial variables ( n = 417 ). Results show that admission to a first-choice program and early performance are strongly associated with persistence, highlighting admission alignment and early university experience as factors contributing to the sustainable use of institutional resources. Despite equivalent academic performance across genders, a marked discrepancy emerged between students’ high self-reported confidence and limited implementation of learning strategies. Cluster analysis identified a clear performance gradient across socio-educational profiles, with students combining high academic capital, low socioeconomic vulnerability, and first-choice admission showing the most favorable outcomes. These findings underscore the relevance of admission preference, trajectories, and socio-educational context for first-year persistence, with implications for institutional sustainability and the consolidation of human capital in engineering education.