Policy Regulation and Farmers’ Intention to Adopt Green Production Technologies: A TAM–TPB Analysis

Green production technologies are pivotal for achieving agricultural ecological sustainability; however, farmers’ adoption intention remains sluggish under current policy frameworks. This study integrates the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) and the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) to build a policy regulation–cognitive transformation–intention analytical framework. Based on 498 survey responses collected from June to October 2024 in Guizhou Province, Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) and the DEMATEL method were employed to quantify influence paths and causal attributes. (1) The results reveal that policy regulation, perceived usefulness, perceived ease of use, behavioral attitude, subjective norm, and perceived behavioral control all have notable direct positive impacts on farmers’ intention to adopt eco-friendly agricultural technologies. (2) Perceived usefulness plays a pivotal role in the direct impact path, while perceived ease of use exerts the strongest indirect influence, driving farmers’ ultimate adoption intentions by being transformed into perceived usefulness and positive attitudes. (3) Based on the causal network analysis, policy regulation is identified as the core source factor with the highest centrality, and it provides foundational support by driving key mediating factors such as behavioral attitudes, Subjective Norms, and perceived behavioral control. Consequently, this study proposes policy recommendations, such as optimizing policy formulation, enhancing the pragmatic perception of technological usefulness, dismantling behavioral and cognitive barriers, and eliminating resource bottlenecks, to provide decision-making references for the green transformation of agriculture.