The Relationship Between Public Charging Infrastructure Density and Residential Electricity Demand: A Spatial Analysis of Italian Municipalities

The rapid diffusion of electric vehicles (EVs) is expected to reshape electricity demand patterns, particularly in urban areas where charging infrastructure and mobility transitions are expanding rapidly. While the existing literature has mainly focused on the optimal location of charging infrastructure and on the direct technical implications of EV charging for electricity systems, relatively limited attention has been devoted to the broader relationship between the spatial distribution of public charging infrastructure and residential electricity demand. This study investigates the relationship between public charging infrastructure density and residential electricity consumption across Italian municipalities. Using a dataset covering 40 provincial capitals and applying spatial econometric techniques, the analysis explores both local associations and potential spatial spillover patterns across neighboring municipalities. In particular, Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), Spatial Autoregressive (SAR), and Spatial Durbin Models (SDM) are estimated in order to account for spatial interdependencies in the data. The results reveal a positive and statistically significant association between the density of public charging infrastructure and residential electricity consumption at the municipal level. The preferred Spatial Durbin specification also indicates the presence of spatial spillover patterns, suggesting that charging infrastructure density in neighboring municipalities is positively associated with residential electricity consumption locally. These patterns may reflect regional diffusion dynamics related to electric vehicle adoption, infrastructure visibility, and geographically interconnected urban development processes. Given the cross-sectional nature of the dataset, the results should be interpreted as associative rather than causal relationships. Nevertheless, the findings provide useful insights into how the spatial expansion of charging infrastructure is linked to evolving electricity demand patterns in urban contexts. Overall, the results highlight the importance of considering spatial interdependencies when planning charging infrastructure deployment and electricity network adaptation in the context of the transition toward sustainable electric mobility.