The Impact of Digital Finance on New Quality Productive Forces in Ethnic Minority Regions

Cultivating new quality productive forces is pivotal for the high-quality development of China’s ethnic minority regions. This study investigates how digital finance, by leveraging its capacity to overcome geographical constraints, can drive this process. Utilizing panel data from 45 ethnic minority cities from 2013 to 2023, we employ two-way fixed-effects, spatial econometric, mediation, and moderation models to examine the impact and underlying mechanisms of digital finance. The findings indicate that digital finance significantly enhances new quality productive forces in border ethnic minority regions and generates positive spatial spillover effects on neighboring areas. This impact is mediated by two pathways: technological innovation and the green, low-carbon transformation. Conversely, digital divides related to access, usage, and skills exert a significant negative moderating effect on this positive impact. Furthermore, a regional heterogeneity analysis reveals that the driving effect of digital finance is more pronounced in the Northwest region compared to the Southwest. Accordingly, we propose targeted policy recommendations centered on optimizing adaptive digital infrastructure, strengthening digital literacy, promoting green finance, and establishing collaborative regional mechanisms. The objective is to amplify the positive impacts while mitigating the existing digital divides.