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The Resilience Paradox and the Matthew Effect: Unveiling the Heterogeneity of Urban Flood Response via Human Activity Dynamics

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  • Jiale Qian

    (School of Public Policy and Management, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
    Laboratory of Computational Social Science and State Governance, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China)

Abstract

Quantifying dynamic urban resilience is critical for climate adaptation. This study assesses the spatiotemporal resilience of 6838 flood-affected communities across 39 Chinese cities using high-resolution human activity data. By establishing a multi-phase framework, we extract six metrics characterizing resistance and recovery trajectories. Results reveal a distinct resilience paradox: coastal cities, despite suffering deeper instantaneous shocks from typhoons, exhibit superior adaptive capacity compared to inland cities, which face chronic recovery deficits under rainstorm stress. Unsupervised clustering identifies 12 distinct resilience phenotypes, ranging from brittle collapse to adaptive growth. Structural analysis confirms a Matthew Effect where functional diversity and economic vitality enable resource-rich communities to bounce forward, while peripheral areas remain trapped in vulnerability. These findings underscore the need for resilience-based regeneration policies that prioritize spatial justice and resource optimization over static engineering standards.

Suggested Citation

  • Jiale Qian, 2026. "The Resilience Paradox and the Matthew Effect: Unveiling the Heterogeneity of Urban Flood Response via Human Activity Dynamics," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 18(7), pages 1-23, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:18:y:2026:i:7:p:3320-:d:1908992
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