Meteorological Drought Variability in the Upper Vistula Basin During Period 1961–2022

The study presents a comprehensive spatio-temporal assessment of meteorological drought in the Upper Vistula basin, a region located in southern Poland. The analysis was based on monthly precipitation data from 30 meteorological stations covering the period 1961–2022. These data were used to calculate the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for accumulation periods of 3, 6, 9, 12, 24, and 48 months. Drought events were identified using run theory, adopting a threshold of SPI < −1 for all accumulation periods. On this basis, drought characteristics were determined, including the number of identified drought episodes (N), average drought duration (ADD), average drought severity (ADS), and average drought intensity (ADI). The multi-scale analysis revealed a clear dependence of drought characteristics on the time scale. Short-term droughts (SPI-3 and SPI-6) occurred frequently and were characterized by high monthly intensity but short duration. In contrast, long-term droughts (SPI-24 and SPI-48) occurred less frequently, but were marked by much longer duration and greater cumulative severity, despite lower average intensity. Spatial analyses showed substantial heterogeneity of drought characteristics within the Upper Vistula basin. The western and south-western parts of the region were particularly exposed to frequent short-term droughts, whereas long-term droughts were less frequent, but more regional in nature and resulted from accumulated, multi-year precipitation deficits affecting groundwater resources and catchment retention. The presented findings provide valuable information for improving drought monitoring systems and adaptation strategies in the Upper Vistula basin and in other climatically diverse regions of Central Europe.