Credible Reserve Assessment Method for Virtual Power Plants Considering User-Bounded Rationality Response

Virtual power plants (VPPs) aggregate flexible resources, such as distributed photovoltaics (PV), energy storage, and flexible loads, to provide substantial reserve capacity for grid operation. However, the combined effects of renewable energy output uncertainty, load forecast errors, and user-bounded rationality responses lead to significant errors in traditional deterministic VPP reserve assessment methods, severely affecting the balance between system supply and demand. To address this challenge, this paper proposes a credible reserve assessment method that accounts for user-bounded rationality. First, thermodynamic models with on–off constraints for air conditioning loads, energy feasible region, and power constraint models for electric vehicles (EVs) and energy storage systems (ESSs), as well as PV forecast error models are established to characterize physical reserve boundaries. Second, prospect theory is introduced to describe user-bounded rationality and a logit-based response probability model is developed. Monte Carlo sampling and kernel density estimation are employed to derive credible reserve sets under different confidence levels, achieving a probabilistic quantification of VPP reserve capacity distribution. Case studies demonstrate that the proposed method accurately characterizes the probabilistic distribution characteristics of VPP reserve provision under multiple uncertainties, providing comprehensive and reliable assessment information for power dispatching agencies.