Spatial–Temporal Patterns and Driving Mechanisms of Ecosystem Service Trade-Offs and Synergies in Fujian Province

This study systematically analyzes the spatio-temporal evolution, trade-offs, synergies and driving mechanisms of five ecosystem services (ESs) in Fujian Province (carbon storage, CS; habitat quality, HQ; sediment delivery ratio, SDR; water yield, WY; food provision, FP) based on multi-source data from 2003, 2013 and 2023 by adopting the InVEST model, Spearman correlation analysis, geographically weighted regression (GWR), self-organizing maps (SOM) and geographic detectors. Results show that: (1) ESs present a spatial pattern of “high in northwest and low in southeast” in Fujian; CS, HQ and FP show an overall decline, while SDR and WY increase significantly. (2) ES trade-offs and synergies have obvious scale effects and spatial heterogeneity, with stronger relationship intensity at the county level than the grid level, and FP generally shows a trade-off relationship with other services. (3) Land use is the key driving factor for CS, FP and HQ; precipitation dominates the changes in WY and SDR; and dual-factor interactions generally enhance the explanatory power of ES changes. The findings enrich the theoretical system of multi-scale ES trade-off and synergy research under rapid urbanization and provide a scientific basis for sustainable territorial spatial planning and differentiated ecological governance in Fujian. Meanwhile, the research framework can serve as a reference for ES management in other coastal mountainous regions worldwide, contributing to the realization of regional sustainable development goals (SDGs).