Forecasting the Carbon Footprint of MDFLAM Production in Türkiye Using ARIMA and EPD Based GWP Data

Understanding the long-term production trends of MDFLAM panels, which are widely used in panel furniture manufacturing, is important for evaluating the sector’s competitiveness and environmental performance. In this study, MDF/HDF production data for Türkiye covering the period 1995–2024 were analyzed. The observations for 1995–2019 were used for model estimation, while the period 2020–2024 was reserved for out-of-sample validation. Production projections for 2025–2030 were generated using the ARIMA time series model. The relationships between fiberboard production and selected socio-economic variables (population, GDP per capita, forest area, and number of enterprises) were evaluated through correlation analysis. While strong correlations were observed in the level data, additional analysis using first-differenced (growth rate) series indicated that these relationships are weak and statistically insignificant in the short term, suggesting that the observed associations are largely influenced by common time trends. Assuming that approximately 60% of total fiberboard production consists of MDFLAM, future GWP values were estimated using verified EPD data. The results indicate that production is expected to continue increasing in the coming years. Although negative GWP values are observed due to biogenic carbon storage during the production stage, this reflects temporary carbon sequestration rather than a permanent reduction in atmospheric emissions. Emissions are expected to increase during end-of-life stages as the stored carbon is released. Overall, the study provides a forward-looking framework by integrating time-series forecasting with EPD-based environmental indicators, offering a useful basis for sustainability assessment and policy-oriented decision-making in the wood-based panel sector.