Educational Equity and Sustainable University Access: A K-Means Clustering Approach to Motivational Profiles of Mexican High School Students

This study identifies motivational profiles among high school students regarding access to the University of Guanajuato, Yuriria Campus, within the framework of Sustainable Development Goal 4 (SDG 4). Using a survey of 306 students from diverse public and private institutions in southern Guanajuato, we applied K-means clustering analysis with validation techniques (elbow method, silhouette, bootstrap) to examine five key dimensions: family support, university interest, academic perception, transport accessibility, and self-efficacy. The analysis revealed three distinct profiles: (1) “Privileged and committed” (21%), with high scores in all variables and predominantly from private schools; (2) “Supported but not captivated” (65%), with moderate resources but low specific interest in the institution; and (3) “Vulnerable and disconnected” (14%), facing multiple barriers including low family support, economic constraints, and rural origin. ANOVA confirmed significant differences between clusters ( p < 0.001). The inclusion of socioeconomic variables allowed for a deeper characterization of equity gaps. These findings provide evidence-based insights for designing targeted recruitment and retention strategies aligned with SDG 4, demonstrating how educational data analytics can inform sustainable higher education policies in regional contexts.