Decoupling Elasticity and Driving Factors of Carbon Emissions in China’s Mining Industry—An Analysis Based on Tapio Decoupling Model and LMDI

Against the backdrop of accelerating global carbon neutrality and the full implementation of China’s “Dual Carbon” strategy, the mining industry, as an energy-intensive sector that guarantees resource supply, plays a critical supporting role in the green transformation of the industry and achieving national carbon emission reduction targets. Based on panel data from 29 provinces in China from 2000 to 2021, this study combines the Tapio decoupling index and the LMDI decomposition method to systematically characterize the evolution of carbon emissions in China’s mining industry, to accurately identify the decoupling state between carbon emissions and economic growth, and to reveal the core driving mechanism, presenting quantifiable and interpretable empirical and technical results. The results show that carbon emissions and raw ore output in China’s mining industry generally followed an evolutionary trend of “first rising, then peaking, and continuously declining”. Carbon emissions peaked in 2013 and decreased steadily afterward, reflecting remarkable achievements in green development. The decoupling relationship has shifted from weak decoupling to stable strong decoupling in 2019 and has been maintained in this state ever since, indicating that the mining industry has entered a high-quality development stage featuring coordinated economic growth and carbon emission reductions. The decomposition results confirm that the output expansion effect is the main driver of the increase in carbon emissions, while the reduction in energy intensity, optimization of the energy structure, and improvement in output efficiency constitute the key forces driving the reduction in carbon emissions, with technological progress, industrial upgrading, and clean energy substitution as the core pathways. In summary, this study empirically verifies the feasibility and effectiveness of low-carbon transformation in China’s mining industry. The realization of a stable strong decoupling state shows that this paradigm can be replicated in the green development of other energy-intensive industries. In the future, precise policy incentives, energy structure upgrades, energy efficiency technological innovation, and standardized construction of green mines can further consolidate the decoupling effects and further encourage the comprehensive transition towards a low-carbon mining industry. The findings of this study can provide a solid theoretical basis and empirical support for the formulation of carbon emission reduction policies and the design of green development pathways in China’s mining industry, with important theoretical and practical value for ensuring national resource security and facilitating the realization of the “Dual Carbon” goals.