Adaptive Robust Dispatch of Integrated Energy Systems Considering Variable Hydrogen Blending and Tiered Carbon Trading

To overcome the limitations of static operation modes in traditional cogeneration and the intermittency of renewable energy, this paper proposes a scenario-assisted adaptive robust optimization framework with a dispatch resolution for Integrated Energy Systems (IES). A closed-loop cascading mechanism is established, integrating biomass co-firing, Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), and Power-to-Gas (P2G) technologies, where captured CO 2 reacts with green hydrogen to produce synthetic natural gas, thereby closing the carbon cycle. Specifically, a dynamic model for hydrogen-blending gas turbines is developed, characterizing the thermodynamic performance under variable hydrogen blending ratios (0–20%), which enables the system to adaptively adjust fuel composition in response to real-time fluctuations in wind and solar power. Furthermore, a tiered carbon trading mechanism is introduced to internalize environmental costs and constrain emissions. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed variable blending strategy effectively mitigates wind curtailment, reducing curtailment costs to 0.31 million ¥, and creates a “double-peak, double-valley” carbon emission profile, reducing the net load peak-to-valley difference by 18.5%. The proposed framework achieves a balance between economic efficiency and deep decarbonization, attaining an optimal unit carbon reduction cost of 0.142 ¥/kWh, demonstrating improved economic and environmental performance of dynamic electro-carbon-hydrogen coupling under variable operating conditions.