Sinking Cities: Hydrogeological Drivers, Urban Vulnerability, and Sustainable Management Pathways

Land subsidence has emerged as a critical geohazard affecting major urban centers worldwide, particularly in coastal and deltaic regions where intensive groundwater extraction and rapid urbanization are prevalent. It is estimated that subsidence threatens more than 1.6 billion people globally, with reported subsidence rates exceeding 100 mm/year in several rapidly urbanizing cities and cumulative ground lowering exceeding 10 m in extreme cases such as Mexico City. This review provides a comprehensive synthesis of the hydrogeological drivers, impacts, and sustainable mitigation pathways of land subsidence based on a systematic literature review of 167 peer-reviewed studies following the PRISMA framework and bibliometric network analysis. The findings confirm that groundwater extraction is the dominant driver, causing pore pressure decline and irreversible consolidation of compressible aquitards, while geological conditions, recharge imbalance, and climate variability strongly influence subsidence magnitude and persistence. The consequences are severe and multidimensional, including increased flood risk, infrastructure damage, groundwater storage loss, ecosystem degradation, and significant socio-economic impacts. Global case studies from major subsiding cities demonstrate that subsidence often contributes more to relative sea-level rise and urban flood vulnerability than climate-driven ocean rise alone. Mitigation strategies, including groundwater regulation, managed aquifer recharge, water-sensitive urban design, geotechnical stabilization, and satellite-based monitoring, have shown effectiveness but remain limited when implemented independently. This study proposes an integrated management framework combining continuous monitoring, hydrogeological assessment, sustainable groundwater management, engineering and nature-based solutions, and governance integration. The findings highlight that early intervention, groundwater sustainability, and coordinated policy actions are essential to reduce subsidence and enhance long-term urban resilience. These insights support the achievement of Sustainable Development Goal 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities), particularly in strengthening disaster risk reduction and climate resilience in subsidence-prone urban areas.