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A Tripartite Evolutionary Game Analysis for Developing Sustainable Rural Cold Chain Logistics

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  • Xiaohu Xing

    (Institute of Logistics Science and Engineering, Shanghai Maritime University, 1550 Haigang Avenue, Pudong New Area, Shanghai 201306, China)

  • Meiqi Zhang

    (Institute of Logistics Science and Engineering, Shanghai Maritime University, 1550 Haigang Avenue, Pudong New Area, Shanghai 201306, China)

  • Xinqiang Chen

    (Institute of Logistics Science and Engineering, Shanghai Maritime University, 1550 Haigang Avenue, Pudong New Area, Shanghai 201306, China)

Abstract

Achieving sustainability in rural cold chain logistics requires resolving inherent conflicts among participating agents. This paper develops an evolutionary game theory framework to examine the dynamic interactions between government regulators, cold chain enterprises, and agricultural producers. The model identifies three evolutionarily stable strategies (ESS) under different policy environments. Numerical simulations, using parameters calibrated from industry data and survey results, quantify the impact of key policy variables: (1) Subsidy intensity has a diminishing marginal effect on green technology adoption, with an optimal range between 12–18% of project cost; (2) Monitoring probability exhibits a threshold effect, needing to exceed 60% to deter non-compliance effectively; (3) Farmer organization reduces system stabilization time by approximately 30%. Our results challenge the conventional focus on single-policy solutions and instead demonstrate the necessity of integrated approaches that simultaneously address economic viability, operational efficiency, and community engagement. These insights offer evidence-based guidance for designing multi-stakeholder governance mechanisms in resource-constrained rural settings.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiaohu Xing & Meiqi Zhang & Xinqiang Chen, 2026. "A Tripartite Evolutionary Game Analysis for Developing Sustainable Rural Cold Chain Logistics," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 18(6), pages 1-42, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:18:y:2026:i:6:p:2989-:d:1898203
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